Richard Russell says get back into the Silver Pool
Wrote in his newsletter last week that the silver market will benefit from the currency crisis playing out in Europe. Investors are now looking past the hopeless situation in the smaller nations of Europe to some of the much bigger member states of the European Union—those members that will overwhelm the ECB and IMF money hole-plugging efforts.“Europe — Aside from France and Germany, Europe appears to be falling apart. First it was Portugal, Ireland, Greece that were in trouble, and now you can add Italy, Belgium and Spain,” Russell wrote. “Wait Spain? Spain is the fourth biggest economy in Europe. Thus the U.S. dollar and the euro are perched on a see-saw, juggling back and forth, first one is up and the other is down, then it’s vice versa.”
When the crisis in the three weakest nations, which make up the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), surfaced in March 2010, the precious metals, instead of softening in the wake of a strong dollar began its remarkable rise of a near triple in a one-year period—from $17 in March 2010 to $50 in late April 2011.
Threats of another collapse in GDP around the globe has some silver investors wondering if a replay of 2008 is in the offing, taking all assets cascading in a heap of horror, including gold, and especially, silver.
Silver’s historical R-squared correlation runs approximately 0.9, with 1.0 as a perfect correlation to the gold price. So, as gold goes, silver goes, history shows. Both are monetary metals, while silver enjoys the added feature as an industrial metal, but the silver price isn’t as highly correlated with copper—the quintessential industrial metal.
Russell expects the crisis in the euro will favor gold, taking silver up with it. And as the euro weakens, the prospects for the U.S. dollar now looks bleaker than ever, as well, because of the globally interconnectedness between European and American banks. Further Fed intervention beyond QE2.5 is nearly assured, which could further play out the “see-saw juggling” of currencies that Russell points out.
“Remember I said that during recessions, silver is treated as an industrial metal, but during periods of inflation silver is treated as a monetary metal,” explains Russell. “With inflation built into America’s future, I see silver following gold to higher levels. And I see the public once more rushing in to buy silver as a safe-haven currency against a shaky dollar.
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Hi-ho silver! The coast is clear; it's everyone back into the silver pool for more profit fun in the sun, Richard Russell recently stated. Richard Russell, the octogenarian publisher of the 53-years running Dow Theory Letters, wrote in his newsletter
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